Kamala Harris’ Chances Surge in Major Election Forecast

Kamala Harris has seen a significant boost in her 2024 election prospects, according to a major new forecast.
The Economist’s latest election forecast shows that Harris now has a 3 in 5 chance of winning the Electoral College in November, compared to Donald Trump’s 2 in 5 chance. This marks the vice president’s strongest position since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate. The forecast also shows that Harris is expected to pick up 281 Electoral College votes, while Trump is expected to win only 257.
Over the past three weeks, Harris’ chances have risen sharply by 10 percent, up from an even split with Trump on September 8, when both had a 50-50 chance of victory, with the Democrat predicted to pick up 270 Electoral College votes—just enough to win—while the Republican was predicted to win 268 votes.
Harris’ overall chances of winning the election have also increased by 6 percent since September 8, from 52 percent to 58 percent, while Trump’s chances have declined by 7 percent, from 48 to 41 percent.
Meanwhile, the forecast shows that the vice president is predicted to win in four swing states—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—while Trump is predicted to triumph in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
“Kamala Harris is in desperation mode; that’s why she keeps lying about her positions. She knows her policies have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that threatens every community,” Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek when asked about the election forecast. It is not clear which “positions” Cheung was referring to.
He added: “Every word that comes out of Kamala’s mouth is a lie, except when she is spewing violent and hateful rhetoric that led to multiple assassination attempts against President Trump.” Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email.
It has been another positive week for the vice president in the polls. The most recent Outward Intelligence poll, conducted between September 22 and 26, put Harris 6 points ahead nationally among 1,735 likely voters.
Another poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, found that Harris is 7 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup, on 52 percent to his 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,005 likely voters between September 23 and 25.
A Clarity Campaign Labs poll from September 24 also put Harris 7 points ahead.
However, some polls conducted in the last week, including a survey by Quinnipiac University put Trump 1 point ahead when third-party candidates were included, while the two nominees were tied in a head-to-head matchup. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted between September 19 and 22 also showed Harris and Trump neck and neck among registered voters when third-party candidates were included.
However, despite fluctuating polls, Harris remains ahead in every polling aggregator. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker puts the vice president 2.8 points ahead, on 48.6 percent to Trump’s 45.7 percent.
The pollster’s forecast also shows Harris has a 57 percent chance of winning the election, picking up 283 Electoral votes to the Republican’s 255.
Race to the White House gives Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the election, with 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248.
Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s polling tracker puts Harris ahead by 3 points. However, his Electoral College predictions were not so positive for the Democrat.
In his newsletter, Silver wrote that his model showed the Electoral College is a toss-up.
“As of Thursday, our forecast is that Kamala Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote—but the Electoral College is basically still a toss-up. That’s because the model figures there’s a 20 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, but only a 0.3 percent chance of the same thing happening to Donald Trump,” Silver wrote.
In early September, Silver’s model had predicted that Trump had more than 60 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
The election will ultimately come down to what happens in the seven swing states, which are very close. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s forecasts, as well as Race to the White House, show Trump is predicted to win by just 1 point in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris is predicted to win by 1 and 3 points in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
However, the margins are so small in the seven swing states that they are still anybody’s to win.
“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” FiveThirtyEight wrote on its website.